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Cake day: July 11th, 2023

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  • Did a little digging. Found one interesting piece from Hudson institute including an opinion piece from former head of world bank. Main points: China, and Russia to a lesser extent, are prioritizing engagement with Africa both for for economic and political purposes (large UN voting bloc). China favors market rate loans over foreign aide, article suggests they cannot afford straight aid even if they wanted to. Loans from China are denominated in dollars, so strengthening USD and increasing interest rates playing a large role in debt. African nations paying more in debt repayment than receiving in aid and economic benefit. Traditional capital markets are no use to Africa because capital is flowing to developed countries and companies that already have cash. Doesn’t seem like China wants to repossess infrastructure they built, they actually want loan repayments. China doesn’t want to take write downs because they are concerned the money will be used to repay western creditors. US foreign policy is weak in Africa, infrastructure aid would go far because would improve terms from China. It’s a far more complex situation than I had thought. I plan to do more reading on the topic so I can be better informed.

    https://www.hudson.org/economics/china-winning-belt-road-debt-battles-david-malpass-joshua-meservey-thomas-duesterberg